Berlin, Germany (Weltexpress). A few days ago, the expert on Latin America from the renowned British think tank RUSI posed this question in the manner of a landlord. The prospect of six more years of Maduro presents the US and the EU with the complex challenge of formulating an effective response to control the alleged ‘crisis in Venezuela’.
A report published on Tuesday last week (30 July) by the world’s oldest political-military think tank, the British Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), assumes that President Maduro will rule the country for another six years, despite complaints of alleged electoral fraud in Venezuela. At the same time, the RUSI report admits the defeat of the attempted regime change in Caracas despite all the tricks of the USA, although Washington has already appointed the election loser as Venezuela’s new president. But the report does not dwell on these foreign policy antics of the US hegemon and instead already considers the problems that the US-led global neo-colonial system of exploitation, which hides behind the harmless term of the neoliberal ‘rules-based order (NbO)’, will face.
The title of the RUSI report is ‘Venezuela’s Bolivarian nightmare continues: What does it mean for the West?’ (the original English text is linked here). The author is Latin America specialist Dr Carlos Solar, a Senior Research Fellow in the International Security Studies team at RUSI. And you have to hand it to Dr Solar, he really is a specialist in omitting unpleasant truths. The reader learns nothing about the decades of massive interference by the collective West, led by the USA, in the country’s internal affairs.
And more importantly, Dr Solar does not say a word about the effects of the extensive sanctions imposed by the USA and the EU, which have crippled the country’s once booming economy and impoverished the population. Otherwise he would have to address the fact that the Venezuelan people are being penalised because they insist on their sovereignty and their right to pursue their own path of economic and social development. Leaving these aspects aside, Dr Solar can justify his crocodile tears with humanitarian concerns about poverty in Venezuela.
Let us now turn to the RUSI report:
Venezuela was once one of the most prosperous nations in Latin America, but the country has been in a downward spiral for over two decades, Dr Solar writes. The recent re-election of Nicolás Maduro, accompanied by accusations of a fraudulent electoral process, therefore signals the continuation of Venezuela’s authoritarian course and its alignment with anti-Western states such as Russia, China and Iran.
The recent, highly controversial re-election of Nicolás Maduro has further exacerbated the political crisis in Venezuela. The opposition, led by former ambassador Edmundo González, claims to have evidence of electoral fraud. This claim is supported by widespread anti-government protests and international condemnations.
A comment on this: The election of Joe Biden as US President in November 2019 was also characterised by massive, months-long protests, culminating on 6 January 2020. None of the major system media spoke of electoral fraud, and anyone who did so in alternative media in the USA had to expect prosecution.
Dr Solar goes on to say that the continuation of Maduro’s regime means that Venezuela is likely to remain allied with anti-Western countries. Maduro’s foreign policy in the past has been characterised by close relations with Russia, China, Cuba and Iran. This alliance has not only ideological but also practical reasons, as these countries provide important economic and military support for Venezuela and help it to resist Western sanctions.
The economic crisis in Venezuela is one of the worst in modern history. Under the leadership of Hugo Chávez and Nicolás Maduro, the country’s GDP has fallen by more than 75 per cent since 2013. The once thriving oil industry lies in ruins and suffers from mismanagement and corruption. As a result, more than 95 per cent of the population now live below the poverty line. … In view of the regime’s track record so far, however, there is little hope. Private investors who were optimistic under a possible González government are now wary of Maduro’s unpredictable policies, which often include the nationalisation of private assets. The regime’s economic policy direction is likely to continue to be influenced by its geopolitical alliances, further isolating Venezuela from Western markets and institutions.
Comment: One lie follows another:
The crash in GDP by more than 75 per cent and the shattering of the once-thriving oil industry are supposedly to blame for mismanagement and corruption. Mismanagement and corruption certainly exist in Venezuela, just as they do in Germany and other Latin American countries. If Dr Solar uses this alone to justify the dramatic collapse of the economy and does not mention the devastating effect of the sanctions, then Mr Solar should return his doctorate, because this is pure ideological manipulation.
Solar writes that private investors ‘were optimistic with the prospect of a successful neoliberal regime change’ and are now still ‘wary of Maduro’s unpredictable policies’, ‘which often include the nationalisation of private assets’. That’s two lies in one sentence:
First, the US sanctions also include severe penalties against any company, American or non-American, that invests in Venezuela’s oil industry. Almost the entire world complied, with the exception of Russian and Chinese companies, which were not impressed by the US frothing at the mouth.
And secondly, Mr Solar also talks about Maduro’s ‘unpredictable policies, which often include the nationalisation of private assets’. He is mainly referring here to nationalisations in the oil industry. The background to this is that Venezuela’s oil industry was almost entirely run by US and some other Western companies. But these Western companies were also threatened with US sanctions if they did not cease their activities there. Attempts by untrained Venezuelans to keep the companies and production going led to the ‘mismanagement’ that Mr Solar lamented.
With regard to Venezuela’s geopolitical partnerships and military relations, Mr Solar expects Maduro’s government to maintain and even deepen its geopolitical and military relations with Russia, China and Iran. Venezuela’s cooperation with these countries includes military exercises, technology transfers and strategic dialogues. These relationships not only strengthen Maduro’s regime, ‘but also offer these countries a foot in the door in Latin America and challenge Western influence in the region’.
Russia and China have been particularly instrumental in supporting Venezuela in developing an alternative security and defence architecture. This support includes the provision of drones, cyber technologies and information systems, which are crucial for Maduro’s regime to maintain control of the country and intimidate neighbouring states. According to the RUSI author, this orientation has significant implications for international security
The internal instability in Venezuela also has far-reaching consequences for its neighbours, the author warns. Relations with Colombia, which are already strained, could deteriorate further if Maduro intensifies his crackdown on organised crime and criminal groups seek safe havens across the border.
Comment: It’s hard to believe that the author is suggesting a softer approach to organised crime out of consideration for Colombia, which is deep in the US pocket.
The migration crisis is another major problem. Since 2015, around 8.4 million Venezuelans have fled the country to seek better opportunities in neighbouring countries such as Colombia, Peru and Chile. These migrants are often exposed to harsh conditions and limited job prospects, which increases the socio-economic pressure in their host countries. The ongoing mass exodus of Venezuelans underlines the regime’s failure to address the root causes of the crisis.
Comment: This is inhuman, pure cynicism, but one that we have become accustomed to from Western think tanks.
Finally, the author turns to the likely reactions of the West and Venezuela’s future prospects.
Outwardly, Maduro will continue his statist-oriented policies that reject the liberal international order, marking a point of no return for the terms of trade of the Western community and its multilateral institutions and lenders.
Although Maduro’s domestic challenges should occupy much of his attention … he can be expected to champion an international agenda in which Venezuela remains closely aligned in geopolitical and geo-economic terms with the anti-Western bloc of countries. There he will find the foreign development and economic support that his regime desperately needs.
Western countries, particularly the US, the EU and the UK, have imposed a series of sanctions on Venezuela to pressure the Maduro regime into democratic reforms. However, these efforts have had limited success, as Maduro has been able to skilfully circumvent international pressure by using the support of his geopolitical allies to maintain his regime.
Conclusion
The West therefore faces the complex challenge of formulating an effective response to the crisis in Venezuela. While sanctions will remain an important tool in the future, they must be complemented by strategic diplomatic efforts and support for the Venezuelan opposition. In addition, Western countries would need to address the humanitarian aspects of the crisis and provide aid and support to the millions of Venezuelans affected by the economic collapse.
The RUSI author concludes by asking the question: ‘What should happen to Maduro?’ And he gives the following answer: ‘His future is bleak and he could become the target of further sanctions and pressure from the international community, where he will be unwelcome abroad (in the West) and at risk of the execution of international arrest warrants. The US State Department accused Maduro of drug terrorism in 2020, accusing him of ‘facilitating drug shipments’ and offering a £12.5 million reward for information leading to his arrest. It is up to the US government to decide whether or not to enforce his arrest.’ In this regard, the author is betting on Trump:
‘If Donald Trump, who has pursued a policy of maximum pressure towards Venezuela, comes to power early next year, Maduro may not be able to resist US pressure as Joe Biden pursues a softer policy towards the regime. What should be of most concern to the West, however, is the fact that Vladimir Putin’s access to cheap oil could be a decisive factor given the looming conflict with Russia. However, the West’s recent track record in pushing for change in Venezuela is patchy and much better ideas and political implementation will be needed this time round.’
