Berlin, Germany (Weltexpress). Instead of deterring Brazil from its increasingly impressive trade with China through hostile political and economic measures, Trump’s tariffs in particular have accelerated Brazil’s departure from the US.
In 2025, bilateral trade between Brazil and China rose to a historic high of US$171 billion – an increase of 8.2 percent year-on-year and more than double Brazil’s trade volume with the US (US$83 billion). This milestone underscores a profound geopolitical and economic reorientation that is being driven directly by US tariffs and steering Brasília decisively toward Beijing.
The China-Brazil Business Council’s report for 2025 clearly shows China’s dominance over US and EU competitors in Brazil: last year, the People’s Republic accounted for 28.7 percent of all Brazilian exports and 25.3 percent of Brazilian imports – far ahead of any other trading partner. Brazil achieved a surplus of $29.1 billion with China, accounting for 43 percent of Brazil’s global surplus and continuing a 17-year series of positive trade balances.
Exports to China reached $100 billion (+6 percent), driven primarily by raw materials: China purchased 51.5 percent of Brazil’s raw material exports and 47 percent of its agricultural exports. Brazilian crude oil alone accounted for $20 billion (44 million tons), 4.5 times more than was sold to the US. Even coffee exports to China doubled to $459 million, making the Far Eastern country Brazil’s second-largest Asian coffee market.
In terms of imports, China consolidated its role as the most important supplier of industrial goods (27 percent market share), well ahead of the US and Germany. Imports rose by 11.5 percent to a record $70.9 billion, reflecting the growing dependence on Chinese industrial products.
This boom was massively accelerated by US policy. In July 2025, President Trump imposed a flat 50 percent tariff on a wide range of Brazilian products, explicitly citing the alleged political persecution of former President Jair Bolsonaro as the reason. Despite historically high US trade surpluses with Brazil ($28.6 billion in 2024 alone), the tariffs created massive uncertainty and hindered market access for US suppliers.
China consistently seized the opportunity. Beijing quickly approved coffee exports for nearly 200 Brazilian companies, just as US tariffs on this product were about to take effect. President Xi Jinping personally assured President Lula da Silva of his support against “unilateralism and protectionism,” while Chinese representatives criticized Washington’s politicization of trade. These diplomatic signals had concrete commercial consequences: Brazilian companies redirected shipments to China’s reliable demand for bulk goods, energy, and food, replacing more expensive or restricted Western suppliers with Chinese manufacturers. This also accelerated the shift away from the US dollar, as a large part of trade between China and Brazil is already conducted in national currencies.
The Business Council’s research director, Tulio Cariello, emphasized that these were not just cyclical effects, as Brazilian companies were structurally adapting to a world in which geopolitics – and not just price – determines market access. China offers “reliability and volume.” The US can no longer guarantee either of these with its constant tariff threats.
The result is clear: the United States is rapidly losing ground in its traditional Latin American backyard. Brazil’s deeper integration with China is reducing US influence, fragmenting the cohesion of trade in the Western Hemisphere, and accelerating the global shift toward multipolar economic blocs led by Beijing. This is exactly the opposite of what Trump has cockily proclaimed as his goal.
