Berlin, Germany (Weltexpress). Part 2/3 also presents the internal dynamics of the ‘axis of change’, its strategic ambitions and cooperation, including its efforts to undermine Western influence such as sanctions, from the perspective of Cold Warriors from the USA.
The ‘axis of change’ – consisting of China, Russia, Iran and North Korea – is united by a common rejection of the Western-dominated world order. All four countries regard the USA as the main obstacle to their regional ambitions and seek to reduce American influence in their respective regions. ‘All four countries see the United States as the primary obstacle to establishing their spheres of influence,’ explain Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Richard Fontaine in their essay in Foreign Affairs.
Each country pursues its own geopolitical goals: China claims ‘core interests’ such as Taiwan and the South China Sea, Iran relies on its ‘axis of resistance’ with proxy groups in countries such as Lebanon and Yemen, North Korea claims the entire Korean peninsula for itself, and Russia considers its ‘near abroad’ – the countries of its historical empire – to be its sphere of influence. From the perspective of the two authors, the world appears to be structured in such a simple manner.
Despite their common goals, there are also tensions within the axis. China and Russia compete for influence in Central Asia, while Russia and Iran vie for oil markets in Asia. Historical conflicts, such as the Soviet invasion of Iran in 1941 or the long-standing rivalry between China and Russia, could hamper cooperation. Nevertheless, the authors emphasise: ‘Their differences are not enough to break the bonds forged by their common resistance to the Western-dominated world.’ Their shared goal of weakening the US and its leadership role acts as a strong link.
Russia plays a central role as the main instigator of this axis. ‘The invasion of Ukraine marked a point of no return in Putin’s long-standing crusade against the West,’ the authors note. Since the start of the war, Moscow has been dependent on the support of its partners, as Western sanctions have restricted access to trade, investment and technology. China, Iran and North Korea have supplied ammunition, drones, microchips and other resources that keep Russia’s war machine running. However, this dependence also gives the partners influence: China receives advanced weapon systems, Iran improves its military capabilities, and North Korea strives for new technologies for missiles and submarines.
The growing military cooperation of the axis
Even before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Moscow’s military support for Beijing had reduced the US’s military advantage over China. Since then, Russia has been supplying China with even more advanced weapon systems. At the same time, the joint military manoeuvres of both countries have increased significantly in scope, frequency and intensity. Russian officers who have fought in Syria and Ukraine’s Donbass region are sharing valuable experience with their Chinese counterparts. This is helping the People’s Liberation Army to compensate for its lack of operational experience, which, according to the authors, is ‘a noticeable weakness compared to the battle-hardened US armed forces’.
Although China’s military modernisation, thanks to Russia’s help, has reduced the urgency of deepening defence cooperation with Russia, both countries continue to focus on technology transfers and the joint development and production of new weapons systems. In February, Russian representatives confirmed that they were working with Chinese partners on military applications of artificial intelligence. According to the authors, Moscow retains an advantage over Beijing in key areas such as submarine technology, remote sensing satellites and aircraft engines.
If China were to exploit Russia’s dependent position in terms of economics and finance to force access to further advanced Russian technologies, this could further undermine the US’s lead over China. A similar dynamic can be seen in Russia’s relations with Iran and North Korea. Moscow and Tehran have forged an ‘unprecedented defence partnership’ that significantly strengthens Iran’s military capabilities. Russia has equipped Iran with modern fighter jets, air defence systems, reconnaissance and surveillance technologies, and cyber capabilities that would make Tehran more resilient in the event of military attacks by the US or Israel.
In return for North Korea’s supply of ammunition and other military support to Russia, Pyongyang is said to have demanded advanced space, missile and submarine technologies from Moscow. Should Russia comply with these demands, North Korea could improve the precision and survivability of its nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missiles and increase the range and performance of its submarines with Russian nuclear propulsion technology, the two authors worry.
Russia’s use of North Korean weapons on the battlefield in Ukraine is already providing Korean developers in Pyongyang with valuable data that could be used to further develop their weapons. In addition, Russian support is likely to have helped North Korea successfully launch a military spy satellite in November 2024 after two failed attempts last year.
The strategic ambitions of the axis
According to the authors, these ambitions are aimed at creating an alternative world order. Joint naval exercises in the Strait of Oman, Iran’s elevation to full membership of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and Iran’s invitation to join the BRICS countries are examples of their efforts to build institutional counter-structures. These steps increase the legitimacy of the members and open up new trade opportunities that circumvent Western sanctions.
A central aspect of their strategy is to weaken Western instruments such as sanctions. ‘The share of Russian imports settled in Chinese renminbi has risen from 3 per cent in 2021 to 20 per cent in 2022,’ the authors point out. Iran and Russia recently concluded an agreement to conduct their bilateral trade in local currencies, thereby evading the effectiveness of US sanctions. In addition, the countries are using their geographical proximity, for example by transporting weapons across the Caspian Sea, to circumvent Western surveillance.
The axis’s cooperation also weakens the US’s ability to mobilise international coalitions against the axis’s destabilising actions. China’s refusal to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has made it easier for countries in Africa, Latin America and the Middle East to take a neutral stance. In the information sphere, the countries are amplifying their impact through coordinated narratives, such as supporting Russia’s claim that NATO provoked the war in Ukraine. These parallel messages reinforce each other and appear more credible, according to the authors.
The axis is not seeking a coherent alternative order, but the authors warn: ‘History shows that a positive programme is not necessary to cause unrest.’ Similar to the axis of Germany, Italy and Japan in the Second World War, no detailed vision is needed to destabilise the existing order. The growing coordination between the four countries poses a serious threat that is permanently changing the geopolitical landscape.
