Berlin, Germany (Weltexpress). The Pentagon think tank RAND surprisingly advocated a change of course for Washington and peaceful coexistence with China; not because RAND had suddenly become peace-loving, but because the US should be spared a humiliating defeat. However, RAND has since been called back.
The politically revealing appeal that RAND recently published in a report over 100 pages long is in itself a sensation, especially considering that it was RAND that, with its groundbreaking policy papers over the last few decades, has significantly shaped the disastrous US-Russia and US-China policies. Among other things, RAND’s paper ‘Extending Russia’ drew up the blueprint for the mass murderous proxy war in Ukraine, which was intended to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia, but which backfired.
For this latest RAND call for ‘peace with China,’ the authors certainly had to step out of their comfort zone. Apparently, insiders in the ‘deep US state’ seem deeply concerned that the political and economic escalations between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping are getting out of hand and that Washington could come out on the losing end. The concern is so strong that the RAND actors have, for once, swallowed their usual arrogance and are now recommending a calmer, more conciliatory stance towards China. The aim is to avoid disrupting the global status quo in US-China relations too much. The complete document in PDF format, entitled ‘Stabilising the U.S.-China Rivalry’, can be found here.
The key findings of the RAND report are that China and the US should strive for a modus vivendi: both sides must recognise each other’s political legitimacy and limit efforts to undermine each other, at least to a reasonable extent. In the past, this was called ‘peaceful coexistence’. Particularly significant and insightful: RAND advises the US leadership to abandon ideas of ‘absolute victory’ over China. Instead, with regard to Taiwan, it should once again accept the ‘One China policy’ as a basis and no longer provoke China with provocative visits to Taiwan, which are only intended to anger China and keep it in a state of constant tension.
The report begins with a detailed historical review that provides context on how rival world powers can coexist – and have done so in the past. The authors even cite Lenin’s USSR as an example of a vision of stable relations with the West, despite the obvious pursuit of Marxist revolution. The most recent example is the détente between the US and the USSR from around 1968 to 1979, in which both sides recognised that unregulated escalation was dangerous and unsustainable. Quote:
“US and Soviet leaders in the heyday of détente embraced the two core aspects of stable competition: They sought elements of an agreed status quo, including arms control regimes, and established personal relationships between officials and crisis management mechanisms that helped to restore balance to the overall relationship.”
In a remarkably balanced assessment, the RAND authors even indirectly defend Leonid Brezhnev for his peacemaking efforts:
‘Those who saw Brezhnev as someone who wanted to deceive or trap the United States completely misunderstood what he was trying to do. True to his sincere commitment to world peace, Brezhnev proclaimed that his goal was nothing less than the salvation of civilisation itself – or, more precisely, European civilisation.’
In the next long section of the paper, the authors even go into meticulous detail about how, for example, internal statements by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and ‘secret speeches’ with ‘more nuanced’ translations by Western politicians and media were deliberately and manipulatively misinterpreted to make the Chinese intentions appear threatening and belligerent. Such honesty and self-criticism from RAND is downright stunning, but it gets even better.
RAND even defends the idea of a potentially peaceful China whose leadership is not bent on world domination and imperialism, but on legitimate influence in its regional spheres. The RAND text explains that while strategists in China see their country as a rising world power, they ‘remain conceptually committed to the idea that China will remain a peaceful and legitimate world power.’ According to the RAND team, this category also includes China’s efforts to ‘proactively engage on the international stage and build a “world-class” military, which is not necessarily meant to be offensive.’
All this makes it clear that the RAND hawks are desperately trying to bring the out-of-touch US policy managers back down to earth and prevent them from irreparably damaging relations with China out of foolish arrogance. However, it is not easy to convince US congressmen, especially senators, to abandon their anachronistic and narrow-minded worldview. This is based on the idea of the hegemonic exceptionalism of the US, which can do anything it wants because, as the only superpower, it can, while at the same time imposing its rules-based order on other states.
In fact, US politicians and media project onto every potential challenger their own criminal, illegal and inhumane ways of thinking and acting, which they themselves embody and have cultivated for more than a century. Consequently, the US sees every other emerging country around the world as a threat, while China sees it as an opportunity for further fruitful cooperation and a win-win situation. The geopolitical blogger on Substack with the username ‘Simplicius’ therefore describes the US as ‘the malignant offspring of the late British Empire, whose predatory characteristics the Americans have inherited’.
In another part of its report, RAND attempts to wean US political culture off its perpetually hostile and confrontational approach to foreign policy. Clearly, the people at RAND have realised that confrontation with China will not lead to global war, but to the sobering reality that Washington is painfully aware that it can no longer win against China.
The US is no longer what it once was. It no longer possesses the overwhelming industrial capacity to seriously bully the emerging world power China. Today, the correlation of forces is rather the reverse, in China’s favour. Therefore, this RAND call for moderation towards China is not a genuine, de-escalating peace measure, but a desperate attempt to save the US from a historically fatal humiliation and geopolitical defeat by China.
RAND even goes so far as to blame Taiwan’s political leadership for provoking China and for the tense situation between China and the US. RAND suggests that Washington use the leverage it has at its disposal against Taiwan to bring the provocative little ‘political yappy dog’ down to its true ‘size’. Therefore, Washington must remind Taiwan’s political leaders that they are mere pawns on the global chessboard of the great powers and should not arbitrarily exceed their role in maintaining the status quo. Here is a quote from the RAND paper on this subject:
“Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te, for example, has made numerous statements that have provoked harsh rhetoric and increased military activity from China. Such activities include claiming that Taiwan is a “sovereign, independent nation” and announcing measures against influence and espionage by China, which they characterise as a “foreign hostile force”. Although the US is not responsible for and cannot fully control Taiwan’s activities, it stands behind Taiwan’s leadership with military support and de facto extended deterrence. Therefore, according to the RAND report, Washington has potential leverage to limit Taiwan’s provocative activities that, from Washington’s perspective, disrupt the status quo represented by the US.”
Meanwhile, Beijing has reached a point where it will no longer tolerate anything from Washington. Therefore, the US must adapt to the reality of China’s economic, political and military power. In the case of rare earths, for example, China undoubtedly holds the trump card that allows Chinese President Xi to demand substantial concessions from the US.
Beijing’s newfound boldness is undoubtedly, in many ways, the contagious effect of Russia’s self-assertion against the hegemonic ambitions of the US/NATO/EU in Ukraine. Russia is the catalyst that has turned the US-led so-called ‘rules-based order’ upside down and unmasked it. This has had an enlightening effect on the countries of the Global South, but above all on China. For Russia has forced the West to play all its sacred cards and ‘last resorts’ of economic and geopolitical weapons against Russia – and China has watched as they all failed to work.
Russia’s role in this big picture is crucial and deserves special emphasis. Without Russia’s determination to challenge US-led hegemony in Europe, China might not have learned so quickly that the West is bluffing. The sanctions against Russia, which were intended to be fatal, have instead exposed the weaknesses of the dollar system and strengthened alternative trade routes such as the BRICS.
Russia has proven that it is possible to resist US hegemony without going under – a lesson that China is now taking on board. US dominance, which had been considered unassailable since the end of the Cold War, is crumbling under the Moscow-Beijing axis. The RAND report is an implicit acknowledgement of this new reality, which rejects the unilateral US world order and establishes a multipolar order in which no single power dictates.
Finally, a telling note: when I wanted to check whether the internet link to the RAND document was still active, I discovered that RAND had withdrawn its report ‘Stabilising the U.S.-China Rivalry’, see screenshot below or in the appendix. The pressure from the warmongers in the US Congress was obviously too great, which, after the burgeoning hope I felt after reading this text, does not bode well for the future of US-China relations.
Notes:
The report ‘Stabilising the U.S.-China Rivalry’ by Michael J. Mazarr, Amanda Kerrigan and Benjamin Lenain is available to the WELTEXPRESS editorial team.
