Berlin, FRG (Weltexpress). Estonia’s northernmost islet, Vaindloo, is uninhabited, just 600 metres long and 200 metres wide. There are no military installations or mineral resources. Nevertheless, this tiny speck lost in the vastness of the Baltic Sea could provide EU/NATO hawks with the pretext for the long-awaited war with Russia.
If one had blindly trusted the warmongering hysteria of German and EU/NATO politicians and their media courtiers, one might have believed that their long-awaited direct armed conflict with Russia was imminent. In Germany, it was primarily the public broadcasters – from ARD to Deutschlandfunk – that portrayed the incident of 19 September 2025 as acute and extremely threatening, especially for our security in Germany and generally for the EU and NATO member states. What had happened?
In the allegedly earth-shattering incident, three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets en route from their air base near Saint Petersburg to a base in Kaliningrad (formerly Königsberg) allegedly violated Estonian and thus NATO airspace over Vaindloo Island for twelve minutes. In the days that followed, the German and EU media were full of reports about this “dangerous” and “brazen escalation” by the unpredictable Russians in an already highly dangerous area of tension.
But what exactly happened? To answer this question, we should first take a look at the attached map. At first glance, we can see that the warmongering propagandists have grossly exaggerated the alleged danger of Russia “invading NATO airspace”. Furthermore, the Russians have denied that their MIGs left the eastern part of the Baltic Sea, even though the narrowness of the corridor means that only a slight deviation from course is needed to unintentionally enter Estonian airspace at the height of Estonia’s northernmost islet, Vaindloo.
As noted at the outset, Vaindloo is uninhabited, just six football fields long and 200 metres wide. There are no military installations or mineral resources. Nevertheless, this tiny speck lost in the vastness of the Baltic Sea could provide EU/NATO hawks with the pretext for the long-awaited war with Russia. As an Estonian island, Estonia’s territorial sovereignty – and thus also NATO airspace – extends twelve nautical miles around the islet, reaching as far as the narrow international transit corridor. All air and sea traffic from Saint Petersburg to Kaliningrad passes through this particularly narrow transit corridor. And the warmongers in NATO want to close this bottleneck with the help of their poisonous dwarf Estonia and pin down Russia, which would guarantee a Russian liberation strike.
The Western warmongers have not presented any evidence that the MIGs actually violated the airspace. Instead, they keep repeating the statement made by the Estonian defence minister, who does not have the technical means to make such a claim (Estonia has about half the population of Cologne). Neither he nor his Western supporters have presented satellite images that could substantiate his claim.
Nevertheless, politicians and “defence experts”, especially in the German media, have increasingly stated that if the Russians were to repeat such a violation of NATO airspace, immediate action would have to be taken and the dangerous intruders shot down. The fact that such an action on Russia’s doorstep would inevitably provoke an appropriate response from Moscow and bring us to the brink of, or into, a major war seems to be of no interest to the disciples of the new, suicidal-apocalyptic cult of combat readiness in Berlin.
Instead, the propagandists of war tried to link the alleged provocation of the three MIG-31s with the alleged hybrid Russian threats posed by drone flights over Polish chicken coops and civilian airports in Norway, Copenhagen, Munich and so on, in order to make the alleged threat look even more dangerous. It has since emerged that not a single one of these drones had anything to do with Russia.
Nevertheless, reporting throughout the EU continued as if nothing had happened, as if the drone pilots had not turned out to be harmless citizens who wanted to test their latest purchase – without permission. War propaganda eloquently invoked the unity of the NATO alliance, there were NATO consultations under Article 4 of the NATO Charter, and there were official warnings to Russia about the risks of miscalculation in the Baltic Sea. Here are some examples of headlines fabricated by the German media:
- “Estonia: Three Russian fighter jets enter airspace without permission” (Tagesschau, 19 September) – focused on the unauthorised entry and NATO’s interception operation;
- “Moscow counters NATO accusation of airspace violation” (DW, 20 September) – highlighted Moscow’s rebuttal amid the incidents in Estonia and Poland;
- “Shooting down Russian fighter jets? A fine line” (BR24, 22 September) – discussed escalation thresholds after UN talks.
Examples of EU headlines:
- “Russian warplanes breach NATO airspace in ‘dangerous’ incursion” (Politico, 19 September) – emphasised the role of Italian jets in the interception near Tallinn;
- “Estonia seeks NATO consultation after Russian jets violate airspace” (BBC, 20 September) – noted the invocation of Article 4 and parallels with drones;
- “Russian fighter jets, in brazen incursion, spend more than 10 minutes in Estonian airspace” (EU Perspectives, 19 September) – describes brazen Russian incursion into Estonian airspace.
Examples of warmongering hysteria and calls to shoot down Russian aircraft.
The media rhetoric following the incident reinforced fears that Russia was allegedly “testing” NATO. Therefore, Russian aggression must be stopped and the intruders shot down. Russia dismissed this as Western “paranoia,” but bellicose, escalating voices in the German and EU press described restraint as weakness.
- CNN (21 September): “European allies warn they will shoot down Russian jets or drones” – reported that British, French and German envoys had privately signalled to Moscow that future airspace violations would be met with live fire. At the same time, the broadcaster described previous peaceful interceptions as “insufficient deterrence”;
- BR24 (22 September): “Shooting down Russian fighter jets? A fine line” – argued that NATO must prepare for “decisive action” such as shooting down jets in order to avoid a “slippery slope to invasion” (by Russia);
- Al Jazeera (25 September): “Is Russia testing NATO with aerial incursions?” – quoted Baltic experts who urged that “NATO countries should shoot down Russian aircraft” to signal determination, describing inaction as an “invitation to hybrid warfare”;
- Forces News (23 September): Coverage of UN meeting noted “heightened tensions” with calls for “pre-emptive rules of engagement,” while Russia dismissed this as “hysteria” justifying NATO’s arms build-up.
However, there were also some critical voices (such as the WSWS website) condemning NATO’s “war escalation propaganda”.
NATO escalation decisions for Estonia and the Baltic poison dwarf states (2025)
Following the start of Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine on 24 February 2022 and again in the wake of the latest highly publicised incidents, NATO has further escalated its presence on its “eastern front”, including through the “Enhanced Forward Presence (eFP)” and new commitments. Important decisions focus on combat groups, brigades and support from the so-called host nations – the three hysterically anti-Russian toxic dwarf states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania:
- Formation of the NATO Multinational Brigade Latvia (July 2024, operational in 2025): Latvia will host a full brigade (over 5,000 troops, led by Canada/Germany), with similar upgrades planned for Lithuania by 2026.
- NATO summit in The Hague (25 June 2025): allies committed to spending five per cent of GDP on defence by 2030; improved air/missile defence for the Baltic states, including integrated Patriot systems in Estonia.
- Expansion of the US Baltic Security Initiative (September 2025): $4.2 billion aid package for HIMARS systems; rotating troops in Estonia (up to 2,000 US personnel in total in the Baltic states); US Congress pushes for sustainability amid Trump administration reviews.
- Baltic mass evacuation/contingency plans (October 2025): Joint exercises to relocate 10 to 30 per cent of the population (approximately 130,000 people in Estonia); includes fortified borders and re-establishment of minefields (withdrawal from the Ottawa Treaty).
- Enhanced Forward Presence Battle Groups (launched in 2025): UK-led group in Estonia, Canadian in Latvia, German in Lithuania; rotating at 1,500 troops each, starting in 2025; plus F-35 squadrons and cyber units.
- Estonian defence pledge (September 2025): five per cent of GDP (2026–2029) for host nation infrastructure to enable faster NATO deployments.
