Berlin, Germany (Weltexpress). According to US media reports, the Pentagon is ready for a weeks-long air war against Iran and is only waiting for Donald Trump to authorize the attack. Many analysts warn of profound risks, including regional escalations, global economic chaos, and potentially catastrophic damage to US strategic targets.
Recent developments in the US Department of Defense indicate intensified preparations for a potentially weeks-long brutal, unprovoked, and illegal (under international law) bombing campaign with isolated commando operations against land targets. According to US media, everything points to a particularly severe bombing campaign. The plans go beyond short-term emergency scenarios and allegedly refer explicitly to long-term operations. Although no political decision has yet been made, the military scenarios indicate that a complex and protracted conflict is expected.
These plans are unfolding against a backdrop of growing tensions and security risks in the Persian Gulf and beyond throughout the region, including increased activity by regional militias supported by Iran, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon.
This would not be the first time that warmongers in Washington have built up a frightening threat scenario against Iran in the region – as in 2007, for example, or during the 2011/12 crisis, when, under President Barack Obama, the Pentagon assembled three combat-ready aircraft carrier battle groups within range of the Iranian coast. But even then – when Iran’s defense capabilities were still far weaker than they are today – there was strong resistance within the Pentagon and the Joint Chiefs of Staff to a war with Iran, which promised heavy losses for the US armed forces and the US economy.
The current attack plan
The focus is reportedly on the assumption that a conflict with Iran would not be ended by quick, targeted strikes, but could drag on for weeks. The plan is to conduct sustained air and sea operations aimed at decapitating Iran’s defense by eliminating its missile infrastructure and command and communication structures.
At the same time, asymmetric counter-reactions from Iran are expected: missile attacks, cyberattacks, attacks by proxy militias, and disruptions to shipping, including the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, are among the scenarios being considered.
In preparation for the attack, there has been a noticeable increase in the US military presence in the region, with two aircraft carrier battle groups accompanied by destroyers, cargo ships, and helicopters for commando operations on land. In addition, long-range bombers have been deployed to the region and regional air bases have been reinforced with stealth-capable F-35 fighter jets. The US Air Force plays a central role in the Pentagon’s war games anyway, as it is to serve as a hub for reconnaissance, surveillance, and precision strikes. At the same time, missile defenses against Iranian retaliatory strikes against US troops and allies are being further strengthened.
Objectives and regional and global implications
According to media reports, the plans apparently envisage the usual phased approach to aggression. First, air defense and missile positions are to be taken out to ensure operational superiority. Then command centers, logistics facilities, and structures associated with the Revolutionary Guards are to be destroyed. The US media dutifully repeat the now well-established falsehood that “regime change” in Tehran is “not explicitly the focus” of the Pentagon’s plans. Rather, the aim is to weaken Iran’s military capabilities in the long term.
A prolonged conflict would have significant consequences for energy markets and international trade routes, especially in the Strait of Hormuz. There is also a risk of escalation by allied militias in several Middle Eastern countries.
Weeks of fighting would pose considerable logistical and political challenges and place high demands on personnel, material, and political support. Domestically, Trump, who promised before his election to end the “endless wars” of the Deep State, would also have problems with his own MAGA movement in the event of a prolonged military conflict. There is already open resistance within the movement from prominent MAGA members.
Not the first threat scenario
As mentioned at the outset, the current threat scenario against Iran being built up by Trump is not the first, but it is the weakest so far.
2007
In February 2007, on the orders of then-President George W. Bush, two aircraft carrier battle groups, the Eisenhower and the Stennis, were sent to the Persian Gulf with their escort ships. The “Assault Group” led by the Batan was also on its way to the Gulf, where another “Assault Group” was already stationed. An assault group consists of seven ships with a total of 2,200 marines, combat helicopters, vertical take-off Harrier fighter-bombers, and other equipment for storming enemy coasts.
In February 2007, Washington assembled a total of around 50 warships in and around the Gulf. British minesweepers, specialized in shallow waters such as those in the Strait of Hormuz, are also involved. Hundreds of US fighter jets were on standby in the region: on aircraft carriers, at the huge US base in Qatar, in Bahrain, at the four large US air bases in Iraq, on Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, and in Afghanistan. Reinforcements have even arrived at the US base in Incirlik, Turkey, although the Turkish government had already declared last year that Turkish territory would not be available for an attack on Iran.
2012
In early 2012, at the height of yet another US blackmail demand against Iran, Washington once again built up a threat scenario, this time even larger, with three aircraft carrier battle groups and accompanying escort and landing ships for the Marine Corps. This deployment took place against a backdrop of escalating tensions over new US demands regarding Iran’s peaceful nuclear program and Iran’s threat to close the Strait of Hormuz in the event of conflict. To back up its blackmailing demands, the US Navy positioned three aircraft carrier battle groups in the northern Arabian Sea and adjacent waters:
- The USS Abraham Lincoln (Carrier Strike Group 9)
- The USS Carl Vinson (Carrier Strike Group 1)
- The USS John C. Stennis (Carrier Strike Group 3)
In the current deployment (January 2026), only the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group has arrived in the Arabian Sea with escort protection. And the US bases in the region have been cleared of US aircraft and crews because they would be easy targets for Iranian missiles. The current US military deployment in the region is therefore significantly weaker than in 2007 and 2012, at a time when Iran is in a much stronger position than before thanks to its own developments and assistance and purchases from Russia and China, and has a good chance of dealing some serious blows to the US fleet.
Let’s see if Trump and his team are as sensible as Bush was in 2007 and Obama in 2012 and withdraw – or if they allow themselves to be blackmailed by Zionists. Because if Trump decides to go to war with Iran, it could trigger a crisis that, instead of destroying the Islamic Republic of Iran, could not only end his presidency but also put an end to Washington’s strategic ambitions in the Middle East once and for all.
