Berlin, FRG (Weltexpress). Ukraine’s defeat can no longer be averted. But at RUSI, the British military’s think tank, plans are already being presented to arm Ukraine into an even more powerful battering ram against Russia during a frozen ceasefire à la North and South Korea.
The aging British bulldog has become entrenched in the war against Russia and refuses to let go. Wisely, the lame Great Dane with his rotten bones no longer wants to take part in the bloody battle himself, but wants to send others into the ring.
The RUSI (Royal United Services Institute) is the oldest military think tank in the world. For centuries, there was no colonial massacre, including genocide, that RUSI did not help plan on behalf of Her Britannic Majesty.
Although the current US/NATO proxy war is not yet over, RUSI is already providing the platform for planning the next Ukraine war against Russia. This at least shows that the RUSI analysts are flexible enough to at least partially free themselves from the US/NATO illusory reality of the mantra “Ukraine will win”.
However, the assumptions for a second round of hostilities against Russia, this time successful for Ukraine, are based on wishful thinking that is no less unrealistic than in February 2022 at the start of the current war, the catastrophic consequences of which for Ukraine cannot be overlooked. These will have repercussions for Ukraine for decades to come, possibly even leading to the loss of the country’s statehood – regardless of the media-effective US/NATO ATACMS show currently taking place.
The RUSI article discussed below calls on the US/NATO governments to plan now how to use a North and South Korea-style “frozen ceasefire” in Ukraine to arm the West’s shrinking Ukraine even more than before in order to use it even more effectively as a battering ram against Russia in the future.
Unspoken, the article presupposes a number of improbabilities as facts: for example, that Russia, which has long since materially won the war against Ukraine, will agree to a “frozen ceasefire” at all, especially as Moscow already knows what the US/NATO would exploit it for. Since, according to Western and Ukrainian observers on the ground, the collapse of the Ukrainian military is not far off, there are many indications of a capitulation with peace dictated by Russia instead of a “frozen ceasefire”.
A further, unlikely prerequisite on which the plan presented by RUSI is based is the question of whether enough soldiers fit for military service will have grown up in the pro-Western part of shrinking Ukraine by then, whether they will want to be used as Western cannon fodder for a second time and whether their families and civil society in Western shrinking Ukraine will agree to this course.
In general, one wonders when reading the RUSI articlewhich appeared on the Institute’s website on November 14, 2024, one wonders whether it is meant as satire or as a strategic blueprint. The title is: “Overcoming the Challenges of Building a Future Force for Ukraine”. The work was written by a certain Andriy Zagorodnyuk, who is certainly no stranger to the warmongers. From 2019 to 2020, he was Ukraine’s Minister of Defense, before that he was an advisor to Ukrainian President Zelensky, and before that he headed the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense’s Office for Reform Projects. He is currently “Chairman of the Center for Defense Strategies” in Kiev. He introduces his RUSI article with the words: “Ending the war and establishing lasting peace in Ukraine is not possible without practical measures to deter potential future waves of Russian aggression. However, devising an effective deterrence strategy poses its own unique challenges.”
Next, the author emphasizes the need for a new armament: “NATO 2.0 for Ukraine”. His leitmotif is: “Robust deterrence against future Russian aggression”. He distinguishes between “deterrence through denial” and “deterrence through punishment”. The latter is pointless, as Russia is known to not even shy away from losing millions in soldiers, equipment and resources.
By contrast, “deterrence through denial” ensures that the opponent becomes incapable of achieving its goals. This can be achieved, for example, by Western sanctions reducing Russia to the technical level of a Third World country or by Ukraine using Western aid to transform itself into a high-tech economy with revolutionary military technology that produces large quantities of weapons.
According to author Zagorodnyuk, the solution to this task is a complete restructuring of the Ukrainian military, flanked by economic resilience, social stability and – (attention real satire) and the rule of law. Because without these “pillars”, peace would only be a short-lived interlude anyway.
According to the analysis, Ukraine should be integrated into NATO as quickly as possible. It emphasizes that Ukraine is a military “asset” for NATO and not a “liability”. It is also argued that (the rest of) Ukraine – in order to better fulfill its military task against Russia – must have a fully-fledged, modern air force with a sufficient number of aircraft. As this would be too expensive for Ukraine, it would have to be borne by the other NATO members as part of a cost-sharing arrangement.
At the same time, the author entices readers with the vision of an economic and industrial miracle machine called Ukraine. Ukraine would take South Korea as a model, where economic growth has been achieved despite a permanent military threat. The author’s “vision”: a stable economy that is able to finance a strong military machine in the long term and at the same time attract international investors.
In the RUSI article, the author praises the Ukrainian defense industry to the skies. In contrast to the cumbersome Western defense industries, it is “agile”, works around the clock and knows no bureaucratic brake blocks. This allows Ukraine to reduce costs and speed up production.
Last but not least, the author cannot resist blaming the US/NATO for Ukraine’s current military problems. In a long litany, he lists the failures and weaknesses of NATO aid to date.
Note:
See the article
- Battering ram against Russia – Series: Plans to rearm Ukraine for the next war against Russia (Part 2/2) by Rainer Rupp
in the WELTEXPRESS.
