Frankfurt am Main, Germany (Weltexpress). Coffee prices are set to rise again. This year has seen high fluctuations not only in the prices of gold and silver, but also in those of coffee and cocoa.
Cocoa is mainly produced in the Ivory Coast, particularly in Ghana. Cocoa farmers have to contend with both too much rain at certain times and too much sun at other times. Periods of rain and drought are disastrous for the harvest. When supply becomes scarcer and demand grows, prices rise dramatically.
More than ever, hordes of capitalists (hedge funds) are descending on the market. This drives prices even higher. The same applies to coffee. This year, the price of Robusta rose to its highest level in 45 years. The price of Arabica also skyrocketed, breaking the record set in February 2025.
Experts and critics know that what rises quickly usually falls quickly, but coffee prices are rising again, especially for Arabica.
The rulers of the most powerful and imperialist state of capital, the USA, which replaced the UK as Leviathan, have imposed tariffs of 50 per cent on the Republic of Brazil, which is not only a member of the BRICS countries but also a founding member. From 1 August 2025, the 50 per cent rate will apply to all imports from the Republic of Brazil to the USA. This was announced by Donald J. Trump, as war president and commander-in-chief of the USA, when he published his letter to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, President of the Republic of Brazil, on Truth Social.
Lula responded to the smear campaign against him and his government. He accused the hegemon not only of the usual lies and deceit and capitalism, but also of imperialism. Lula emphasised: ‘We will respond to any unilateral increase in tariffs in accordance with Brazilian law on economic reciprocity.’
Trump’s letter was apparently known to some capitalists, as the price of Arabica on the New York Stock Exchange rose by more than 3.5 per cent on Thursday morning. Most Arabica coffee is produced in the Republic of Brazil. This year, the Republic of Brazil is expected to produce 55.7 million 60-kg bags of coffee. This represents an increase of 2.7 per cent compared to 2024. With a 50 per cent tariff, traders will no longer deliver this coffee to the United States.
However, the price of coffee from other countries subject to lower tariffs will also rise. Because demand for coffee from other countries is increasing in the US, the price of coffee on offer there will not fall but rise.
But the price of beans and coffee is also rising because the US government has imposed tariffs on countries that participate in EU bureaucracy. And it is rising because, in view of the price increase in the US, capitalists are trying to drive up prices at other trading centres as well. Experts and critics know that prices on the coffee and cocoa market can be triggered more quickly than on other commodity markets.
Volatility is almost certain to remain high for Arabica and Robusta.
