Berlin, Germany (Weltexpress). This three-part series discusses the analysis of renowned Cold Warriors from the USA published in the journal ‘Foreign Affairs’. It deals with the growing cooperation between China, Russia, Iran and North Korea, their common goals and the challenge to the rules-based Western world order.
In a world marked by geopolitical tensions, American representatives of Cold War thinking see a new power constellation emerging that aims to undermine the US-dominated global order. Part I examines the emergence of this ‘axis of change’ and its initial effects. Part II analyses the dynamics and tensions within this group as well as its strategic ambitions. Part III outlines how the US and its allies should respond to this threat in order to defend the existing world order, from the perspective of the two Foreign Affairs authors Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Richard Fontaine.
‘For years, China, Russia, North Korea and Iran have expanded their coordination with the common goal of weakening the United States and its leadership role,’ argued the two authors Kendall-Taylor and Fontaine in a widely commented essay in 2024. The convergence of these countries has ‘already changed the landscape of geopolitics,’ they wrote. ‘Their combined economic and military capabilities, coupled with their determination to change the way the world has functioned since the end of the Cold War, add up to a dangerous mix.’
Foreign Affairs briefly introduced the two authors as follows:
ANDREA KENDALL-TAYLOR is a senior fellow and director of the Transatlantic Security Programme at the Centre for a New American Security. From 2015 to 2018, she served as Deputy National Intelligence Officer for Russia and Eurasia on the National Intelligence Council.
RICHARD FONTAINE is head of the Centre for a New American Security. He has worked at the US State Department, the National Security Council and as foreign policy advisor to the notorious warmonger and now deceased US Senator John McCain.
In their latest lengthy essay in Foreign Affairs, the two authors warn even more urgently than before about the new geopolitical constellation of China, Russia, Iran and North Korea, whose informal coalition they describe as the ‘Axis of Upheaval’. These states share the common goal of ‘undermining the principles, rules and institutions of the existing international order,’ which they consider to be dominated by the US. Their cooperation has already ‘changed the face of geopolitics’ internationally, and their combined economic and military capabilities form a ‘dangerous mix,’ the authors warn.
Russia’s attack on Ukraine in February 2022 accelerated this cooperation. The attacks in Ukraine made it clear that Russia is not acting alone: the Russian weapons used contained technology from China, missiles from North Korea and drones from Iran. ‘Moscow has deployed more than 3,700 Iranian-designed drones,’ and Russia now produces at least 330 drones itself every month (editor’s note: according to the latest figures, this figure is up to 1,000 per day), while working with Iran on plans for a new drone factory.
North Korea is supplying ballistic missiles and over 2.5 million rounds of artillery ammunition, while China has become Russia’s most important economic lifeline. Beijing has massively increased its purchases of Russian oil and gas and is supplying war materiel such as semiconductors, electronic devices and parts for fighter jets. According to customs records, Russia’s imports of computer chips are approaching pre-war levels again despite Western sanctions – more than half of them come from China, the authors lament.
This support strengthens Russia’s position on the battlefield, undermines Western efforts to isolate Russia and harms Ukraine. But the cooperation is not limited to Ukraine. The four countries deepened their economic, military, political and technological ties. They increasingly shared common interests, coordinated their rhetoric and coordinated their military and diplomatic activities. ‘Their convergence is creating a new axis of upheaval – a development that is fundamentally changing the geopolitical landscape,’ the authors emphasise.
This cooperation is not new. China and Russia have been deepening their partnership since the end of the Cold War – a trend that accelerated after Russia’s ‘annexation’ of Crimea in 2014. Between 2013 and 2021, China’s share of Russian foreign trade doubled from 10 to 20 per cent, and Russia supplied about 83 per cent of Chinese arms imports between 2018 and 2022. Russian technology has strengthened China’s military capabilities, particularly in the areas of air defence, anti-ship weapons and submarines.
Iran has also intensified its relations with the other members of the axis, for example through its cooperation with Russia in supporting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad since 2011. North Korea, which has relied on China as its main ally for decades, has been supplying missiles to Iran since the 1980s and may be supporting Iranian proxy groups such as Hezbollah.
The four states do not form an exclusive alliance, but rather a ‘collection of dissatisfied states’ united by their common desire to challenge the US-led order. Their cooperation strengthens their military capabilities, weakens the effectiveness of Western sanctions and hinders the ability of the US and its partners to enforce global rules. ‘When these four countries work together, their actions have a far greater impact than the sum of their individual efforts,’ Kendall-Taylor and Fontaine warn.
Despite their differences – such as the competition between China and Russia in Central Asia or between Russia and Iran in the oil markets – their common goal of weakening the US and its leadership remains a strong bond. The authors emphasise: ‘In regions across Asia, Europe and the Middle East, the ambitions of the axis members have already had destabilising effects.’ Addressing this challenge must now be a central goal of US foreign policy.
