Berlin, FRG (Weltexpress). An overview of the interactions between the US, Iran, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Russia, China and other players in the increasingly volatile Greater Region over the past four weeks.
Over the past four weeks, from March 23 to April 20, 2025, the Middle Eastern melting pot of geopolitical rivalries, armed conflicts and shifting alliances has experienced another flood of sometimes hair-raising, but also hopeful developments. The interplay between the powers – in particular the USA, Iran, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Russia and China – has intensified, characterized by nuclear negotiations, military sabre-rattling and diplomatic manoeuvres in a region on the brink of uncontrollable escalation. Against the backdrop of the
- fragile transition phase in Syria controlled by the al-Qaeda terrorist offshoot Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which is now receiving massive financial support from the West
- the relentless conflict in Yemen, exacerbated by the US bombing of civil society there, and in light of
- the ongoing efforts of the radical right-wing Zionist apartheid government to complete the genocide in Gaza by starving the surviving Palestinian families there,
the geopolitical balance of power is shifting between the superpowers and major powers also involved there, such as the USA, China and Russia, with Saudi Arabia and Iran currently emerging as key players.
Let’s start with a closer look at the nuclear negotiations and the US-Iranian confrontation at the center of recent developments. This is not just about the US prohibiting Iran from developing nuclear weapons, which Iran neither possesses nor seeks to possess, as even publicly distributed US intelligence analysis proclaims. No, ignoring the pillars of their power crumbling around them, the US elites in Washington still feel they are the masters of the universe. This becomes particularly dangerous when Washington, in its arrogance, also acts as if it were omnipotent, e. g. when Trump wants to ban the millennia-old cultural nation of Iran from developing any civilian nuclear technology for medical and other peaceful purposes.
At the same time, President Trump personally backs up this ban with the most brutal threats of war. Washington and the entire collective warmongering West maintain an stony silence about the two to three hundred nuclear weapons and delivery systems possessed by the genocidal Zionist aggressor state of Israel.
On April 12, 2025 in Muscat, the capital of Oman, there was a glimmer of hope that the growing tensions between Iran and the US would not spiral out of control. On this day, indirect talks between the two antagonists resumed, with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and US special envoy Steve Witkoff talking via a mediator, i.e. not in eye-to-eye talks, about reviving the international UN nuclear agreement unilaterally torn up by Trump during his first term in office. A second round of negotiations followed from 19 to 20 April in Rome, with the US pushing for Iran to abandon its missile program and end its support for groups such as Hezbollah and the Houthis in addition to a ban on uranium enrichment.
Iran, on the other hand, insisted on its sovereignty and demanded in return that the USA abide by the original agreement and lift the unilateral sanctions against the Iranian economy, which violate international law! At the same time, a warning from an Iranian government advisor in Washington caused a stir. He had said that if the US/Israel attacked Iran’s civilian infrastructure, Tehran would have no choice but to develop nuclear weapons after all, which illustrates the high stakes involved in the negotiations in Oman.
In return, the USA underlined its willingness to hold further talks with Iran by building up a massive military threat. They are deploying B-2 stealth heavy bombers to Diego Garcia, a US base in the Indian Ocean, with Iran within bomber range and, conversely, within range of Iranian hypersonic missiles. At the same time, the aircraft carriers USS Carl Vinson and USS Harry S. Truman are already in the region. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has also rattled his saber and announced decisive action against threats from Iran or its allies.
Iran is unimpressed by Washington’s war dance and is instead presenting its underground “missile cities” and at the same time strengthening its air defenses, whereby the US bases in the region and the energy infrastructure of US allies would be the first to come under missile fire. Just a few days ago, the danger of a conflict that could be derailed by even a minor provocation seemed omnipresent. However, the last few days seem to have shown that all sides, with the exception of Israel, have carefully weighed up their steps in order to avoid an all-out war.
Israel – Iran: A ticking time bomb
Israel’s shadow war with Iran continues to escalate, with the Zionists seeking to exploit Iran’s weakened position by decimating its regional allies (Hezbollah in Lebanon and the victory of the al-Qaeda offshoot Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham in Syria). Credible reports, e.g. in the New York Times, indicate that Israel had planned attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities in the week before Easter, but that these were personally prevented by President Trump. Trump had already rejected corresponding Israeli attack plans in October 2024, i.e. before the election. Iran has warned that any attack could trigger a regional conflagration, which is also fueling fears in the US of the economic consequences of a major war in the region.
Meanwhile, Israel’s military operations against the civilian population in Gaza and increasingly in the West Bank to ethnically displace the inhabitants continue. In Lebanon, Hezbollah has suffered significant losses, while Israeli airstrikes in Syria, such as on the Tiyas airbase, are intended to send warnings to Iran and also deter Turkey’s growing presence in Syria. The US supports Israel’s actions, but is calling for restraint to prevent a spiral of retaliation. In addition, there have been reports in recent days of the withdrawal of 600 US troops from Syria, although according to the Pentagon, 1,400 soldiers remain on seven US bases in Syria.
Saudi Arabia’s diplomatic dance with Iran
Saudi Arabia is using the opportunity to strengthen its regional influence and is skillfully balancing rivalry and rapprochement with Iran. On April 17, 2025, Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman met with Iranian leaders, including Supreme Leader Khamenei, in Tehran. As a member of the Saudi royal family, Khalid bin Salma reiterated during the talks that Riyadh would not support US or Israeli attacks on Iran or a ground offensive against the Houthi in Yemen. This can be seen as an indirect response to Iran’s announcement in October 2024. At that time, Tehran had threatened to destroy the oil facilities and other infrastructure of any country in the region that supported Israel and made its territory available for US/Israeli attacks against Iran.
Iran’s alliance with Russia and China
In the face of its isolation by the collective West, Iran relies heavily on Russia and China. In April 2025, Foreign Minister Araghchi visited Moscow to coordinate strategies ahead of the US nuclear negotiations, while China’s President Xi Jinping reiterated his support for Iran at the BRICS summit, emphasizing a common anti-imperialist stance. This cooperation extends to Iran’s allies, with China’s Chang Guang Satellite Technology Co. providing intelligence support to the Huthi along with Russia and Iran, despite US protests.
Russia, on the other hand, is faced with the decision after the fall of Assad to withdraw from Syria and give up its air and naval bases there or to remain on the ground under precarious conditions and maintain a remnant of influence in Syria. Ironically, it was the new Al-Qaeda-led transitional government in Syria that asked the Russians to stay on the bases and negotiate new basing rights. This can be seen as an attempt to hedge against major attacks from Israel.
At the same time, the transitional government in Damascus is further consolidating its power. It is concluding agreements with Druze militias and the Kurdish “Syrian Democratic Forces” in order to integrate fighters and marginalize them in terms of power politics. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia and other Arab states are providing funds to stabilize the transition in Syria under Sunni auspices and to counter Iran’s Shiite influence in the country. Saudi Arabia also seems to have no reservations about the continued Russian presence on Syrian bases. The Russians on the bases are probably seen as a stumbling block against potential territorial encroachments by Turkey and Israel on the strategically lucrative Syrian coastal region.
In Yemen, the US, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have stepped up their airstrikes against the Huthi, with the US Central Command (CENTCOM) in Germany launching 27 strikes on April 14 this year. Talks of a UAE-backed ground offensive by Yemeni forces are gaining momentum, but Saudi Arabia is acting cautiously to avoid retaliation by the Huthi on Saudi oil facilities. All these are just the visible tips of complex networks of regional alliances that can change from one day to the next.
The Middle East remains a powder keg, with Israel’s threatening gestures against Iran and Saudi Arabia’s deft maneuvering to expand its influence. The fall of Assad, the weakening of Iran’s allies and the ongoing conflicts in Yemen and Gaza have shifted power in favor of Riyadh and Jerusalem, but Iran’s support from Russia and China provides a counterbalance.
The US-Iran nuclear negotiations will be of crucial importance in the coming weeks and, thanks to Russian mediation, there is reason to believe that diplomatic efforts will soon be successful due to recent developments. More on this in the second part. There is hope for de-escalation, but the risk of miscalculation remains, which is why a major conflagration cannot be ruled out.
The Al-Qaeda-affiliated terrorist movement that plays a central role in the Syrian transitional government is Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). HTS, originally known as the Nusra Front, was a direct offshoot of Al-Qaeda in Syria. Under the leadership of Ahmed al-Sharaa (also known as Abu Muhammad al-Jaulani)HTS officially broke away from Al-Qaeda in 2016 and renamed itself Jabhat Fatah al-Sham before reforming as HTS in 2017. Despite this disassociation, HTS continues to be classified as a terrorist organization by the United Nations, the EU and the US due to its historical links to Al-Qaeda and its extremist roots.
HTS is the leading force in the Syrian transitional government, which was formed after the fall of the Assad regime in December 2024. Ahmed al-Sharaa has taken power and important posts have been filled by HTS members, such as Murhaf Abu Kasra, the former military chief of HTS and previously of the Nusra Front, as the new Minister of Defense.
