Berlin, Germany (Weltexpress). A US attack on Venezuela is unlikely to be a walk in the park or a simple asymmetric war like in the past. Numerous factors suggest that the Trump administration, especially its hardliners, may be reconsidering their expectations, according to an analysis by the communist magazine Contropiano online on 4 November, pointing out that in the early hours of Friday, 31 October, as Trump’s Air Force One returned from the Busan summit, the Wall Street Journal and the Miami Herald simultaneously published articles about alleged US plans to attack military facilities in Venezuela. The synchronised dissemination of this explosive information followed the classic pattern of coordinated leaks, in which several media outlets publish the same story to give the impression of mutual verification. A parade operation of psychological warfare.
The problem is that no one named identifiable sources, only anonymous ones. The only concrete clue was a meeting in Congress the day before, attended exclusively by Republican congressmen. No documents, no official statements, no confirmation from the Pentagon. Just the ubiquitous ‘sources familiar with the matter’.
On board the presidential plane, the Associated Press correspondent questioned Trump about the articles in the Wall Street Journal and the Miami Herald and asked for confirmation of the reports in the two newspapers. Trump’s answer was unequivocal: ‘No. There are no plans for ground attacks against Venezuela.’
Of course, it may seem like a half-truth or even a half-lie to rule out ground attacks but not air or missile strikes. But if the commander-in-chief says there is no such plan, what exactly did these newspapers publish? Indiscretions from Republican hardliners? Speculation presented as irrefutable fact?
The answer may lie in what some US political and media circles wanted to present as reality rather than speculation. They created a consensus for military intervention that the president himself had recently ruled out, at least for the time being. In fact, just a few hours ago, Trump said in an interview with CBS: ‘Maduro’s days could be numbered.’
In fact, neither the reinforcement of the naval fleet in the Caribbean with the arrival of the aircraft carrier Ford nor the US landing exercises in Puerto Rico bode well. In addition, deadly attacks on ships falsely accused of drug trafficking continue.
Three more sailors have been killed in the past few hours during a US operation in international waters. This brings the death toll from US operations in recent weeks to 65. ‘The Ministry of Defence will treat them just like al-Qaeda,’ US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth wrote on social media, confirming a penchant for intimidation tactics that much of the world has long refused to tolerate.
Venezuelan authorities have also warned of false flag operations, such as the one against a US Navy ship, the Gravely, which was to be hit by an explosion during a stopover in Trinidad and Tobago – an attack that was to be blamed on Venezuela in order to justify retaliatory action by the US.
What the United States apparently failed to take into account, either from a media or political perspective, were the international alliances that Venezuela has built up in recent years.
In particular, its relations with Russia have attracted attention, as Russia may well be interested in the emergence of a ‘Ukrainian scenario’ within the US sphere of influence. What would Washington say if a country close to the US were to be armed and supported to such an extent that it became a ‘steel hedgehog’, as Ukraine is supposed to be on Russia’s border?
In recent days, it has been revealed that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has sent formal letters to Russia, China and Iran requesting military support and requesting radar, drones, missile systems and technical assistance in the context of ‘US aggression’.
From Moscow, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated: ‘We are monitoring the situation in Venezuela very closely’ and that Russia has an interest in ensuring that the situation between Venezuela and the United States remains peaceful. However, this predictable, cautious public stance seems to contradict the concrete presence of Russian transport aircraft en route to Caracas and the existing bilateral strategic agreements.
Furthermore, the agreement between Venezuela and Russia is not a new development. The two countries had already signed a ‘strategic partnership agreement’ in Moscow on Wednesday, 7 May, to strengthen bilateral relations – an agreement valid for ten years.
The agreement elevates cooperation between Russia and Venezuela to the highest level at a time when both nations are facing severe Western sanctions and are working to develop alternatives to the US- and EU-dominated payment and transaction systems.
The signed document also sets out a common position on international sanctions, as both countries reject unilateral coercive measures, which they consider contrary to international law, and undertake not to impose economic or political restrictions on each other.
When signing the agreement, the heads of state of Russia and Venezuela reaffirmed their intention to deepen the strategic partnership between the two nations through joint developments in the areas of security and defence, as well as military-technical cooperation, and to strengthen strategic relations between the armed forces and defence industries of both countries.
From 2001 to 2024, Caracas and Moscow signed nearly 400 bilateral agreements , including agreements on military cooperation. As of November 2024, there were about 30 such agreements.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov described the strategic agreement in May as a ‘weighty, substantial and very important framework document’.
Although no further details of the signed document have been released, it is likely that the agreement covers the renewal of maintenance programmes for missile systems and air defence radars, armoured vehicles, tactical vehicles, electronic reconnaissance systems, helicopters and combat aircraft. Given the possible imminent end of the war in Ukraine, it is also likely that arms supplies to the Bolivarian National Armed Forces will resume, which, due to the current situation, have had to turn to Iran to continue equipping their combat units.
It is evident that, in the new international political and economic situation, the Trump administration once again views Latin America as its ‘backyard’ in order to regain the hegemony it has lost over the last 25 years. However, the climate in international relations has changed, and a military operation against Venezuela is unlikely to be as straightforward as the Western warmongers in Washington and Europe would like.
