Berlin, Germany (Weltexpress). Ukraine is to be admitted to the EU. That is the declared will of the EU. There is hardly any public discussion on the matter. Only Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orban is opposing it and has held a referendum in Hungary. Ukraine’s accession to the EU would be disastrous militarily, economically, and financially.
The EU is conducting official accession negotiations with Ukraine. Accession can only take place with the unanimous approval of the 27 member states. This means that a single state can block accession. Such a blockade is the declared goal of the Hungarian government – a tough fight.
In order to determine how the Hungarian population feels about this, the Orban government decided in March 2025 to hold the “Voks 2025” (Vote 2025). All eligible voters in Hungary were sent a letter and could answer the question “Do you support Ukraine’s accession to the European Union?” by returning the ballot paper. There was no legal basis for this referendum, the electoral authorities were not involved, and the result is not legally binding. In this respect, it was an “ad hoc presidential plebiscite.” The mailing of the ballot papers began on April 15, 2025, and the responses had to be received by June 20, 2025.
A total of 2,278,015 valid votes were cast, representing a turnout of around 29 percent. Of these, 95.19 percent were against Ukraine joining the EU and only 4.81 percent were in favor. i The result was therefore very clear.
Victor Orban presented this result at the EU summit in Brussels on June 26, 2025. “My voice has grown stronger.” ii According to Orban, Ukraine’s membership in its current state would be an act of self-destruction for Hungary. “If we were to accept a country at war, we would be drawn into a war with Russia,” he warned. He also questioned the viability of Ukraine’s current borders and government structure, claiming that the country’s statehood was uncertain in light of the conflict. “We don’t even know what will be left of the country,” he said.
Other arguments were also important in the public debate in Hungary. State Secretary Zoltán Kovács wrote: “Billions are being diverted from Central European development, EU agricultural subsidies are being cut because Ukraine’s huge agricultural areas are being incorporated into the system, and there are threats to public health and increased security risks from organized crime and arms trafficking.” iii
These are clear concerns that are being voiced in the Hungarian public sphere. You don’t hear anything like this in other EU countries. What are we to make of this?
I would like to offer a realistic assessment below. In my book “Wahrheitssuche im Ukraine-Krieg” (Seeking the Truth in the Ukraine War), I have described the actual situation in Ukraine in detail. And on June 5, 2024, the “BSW Group” in the German Bundestag submitted a motion entitled “No opening of EU accession negotiations with Ukraine.” iv This was not dealt with, but was “dealt with” by the end of the legislative period. v The consequences of Ukraine’s accession to the EU would be dramatic.
Soldiers from EU countries would have to fight and die in Ukraine.
The EU is a military alliance. Very few people know this, but it has been the case since the Lisbon Treaty of 2009. According to Article 42(7) of the Lisbon (TEU) Treaty, Member States „shall have … an obligation of aid and assistance by all the means in their power“ if a Member State „is a victim of armed aggression on its territory“. vi This means that the obligation to participate fully in war goes even further in the EU than in NATO. In NATO, a “case of alliance” under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty merely requires member states to take measures “which they deem necessary.” vii “Deem necessary” is a vague formulation that leaves everything open to individual states. The Lisbon Treaty is clearer on this point.
All EU member states would therefore be obliged to send soldiers to Ukraine if Ukraine joined the EU. This is because they would have to provide „… assistance by all the means in their power.” This naturally includes their own military forces. This would mean that Germany and all other EU member states would enter into open war with Russia, a nuclear power.
The EU member states are, of course, already in an undeclared war against Russia, as they are fully financing, equipping, and training the Ukrainian military, supplying it with satellite data, secretly helping to organize operations, and defining war aims. The EU is an accomplice, but it is letting the Ukrainians fight and die. This would no longer be possible after Ukraine’s accession to the EU, as then the cemeteries in Germany would also have to be expanded.
According to the Lisbon Treaty, such military operations could be avoided if the EU determined that Ukraine was not a victim, but had itself attacked the sovereign Donbass regions, and that Russia’s entry into the war was therefore an act of self-defense in accordance with international law, as provided for in Article 51 and the UN Charter. However, such an assessment is too much to ask of EU governments, as they have claimed the opposite for years in order to justify their strong involvement in the war against Russia.
If their own soldiers were to die, however, the mood in society would shift. It is therefore very unlikely that Ukraine will join the EU before the end of the war.
A bottomless pit
The financial implications of Ukraine joining the EU would be staggering and would largely absorb the EU budget. There are ten net contributors to the EU, with Germany contributing 17 billion, France 9 billion, and Italy 4.5 billion, and 17 net recipients. Poland receives around €8 billion, Romania €6 billion, and Hungary €4.6 billion from the EU every year. viii The current net recipients would receive almost nothing after Ukraine’s accession to the EU, as the billions would have to flow into Ukraine.
“A study by the EU Council estimates the cost of Ukraine’s accession to the EU at €186 billion,” writes the BSW in its motion. “This would far exceed the EU’s financial capacity and, if counterfinancing were necessary, would lead to serious social cuts in the EU and in Germany as a result of corresponding cuts or would have to be offset by massive tax increases.”
Ukraine would continue to swallow up billions. This is because Ukraine’s economic prospects are poor. It is a failing state. When it was founded in 1991, Ukraine had a population of around 52 million. Since then, the population has shrunk due to emigration and low birth rates. After the start of the Donbass War in 2014, millions fled, and since the start of the Ukraine War in 2022, another eight million Ukrainians have fled abroad, about a third of them to Russia, which many Ukrainians do not consider an enemy but a friend. The territory of the old Ukraine has thus been depopulated to less than 30 million people. ix From this figure, approximately eight million inhabitants of the four regions of eastern Ukraine must be deducted, who transferred to Russia in September 2022 following referendums. This means that there is simply not enough labor to rebuild Ukraine’s economy after the war.
In addition, the war is decimating the working population. Military cemeteries are growing rapidly in Ukraine. There are many indications that up to one million Ukrainian soldiers have died or been maimed at the front. x The real figures are being kept secret from the public.
The conservative British newspaper “The Spectator” published a sober analysis on July 18, 2025. Ukraine is facing a critical military, political, and social crisis that threatens to destroy the country from within. Seventy percent of Ukrainians believe their leaders are using the war for personal gain. Corruption is undermining morale. Forty percent of the working-age population has left the country. Inflation is rampant. Nine million people live below the poverty line. xi
The international financial community also now takes a bleak view of Ukraine’s future. Blackrock, the world’s largest asset manager, wanted to raise billions from international investors for a Ukraine reconstruction fund. However, due to “lack of interest,” Blackrock closed the fund in July 2025, reported the Berliner Zeitung. xii The World Bank even estimated the total cost of rebuilding Ukraine after the war at more than $500 billion. Where is the money supposed to come from?
Ukraine is already largely financed by foreign funds. The Kiev state budget for 2023 envisaged tax revenues of around 30 billion euros. Expenditure was twice as high at 60 billion. xiii Between 2022 and 2024, around 100 billion flowed into Ukraine from EU countries. xiv This means that around half of Ukraine’s government spending was financed by EU countries! Ukraine is completely dependent on the EU and is not viable on its own.
One thing is certain: after joining the EU, Ukraine would continue to swallow up such sums at the expense of other EU members for a long time to come.
Russia is responsible for rebuilding the eastern Ukrainian regions that have seceded to Russia. The rapid reconstruction of the port city of Mariupol, which was severely damaged in the war, is particularly impressive. Russia has set itself very ambitious reconstruction goals and is able to finance them, as it had the lowest national debt of any major industrialized and emerging economy in 2024, at only 20.3 percent of gross domestic product. xv
Low-wage country would destroy livelihoods in the EU
A friend of mine who is an organic farmer told me last year about his existential worries. He saw his business in jeopardy, sales had collapsed, and cheap Ukrainian goods had flooded the market in his segment. It is to be feared that we will hear many such stories after Ukraine joins the EU and a customs union is established.
To understand this problem, you need to know that Ukraine is the poorhouse of Europe. In 2023, the gross national product per capita was around $5,000 per year, compared to over $50,000 in Germany, i.e. ten times as much. xvi That is the average; the majority of Ukrainians live on less than $100 per month. If Ukraine joins the EU, these income disparities would collide unfiltered. In Ukraine, agricultural corporations have bought up large swathes of fertile farmland, labor is cheap, and exports to the EU are therefore lucrative. This would cost many farmers and companies in EU countries, which have to bear ten times the labor costs their livelihoods. Anyone calling for Ukraine to join the EU is effectively calling for the destruction of their own agriculture.
A common economic and customs area requires conditions that are reasonably compatible. The gap between the EU and Ukraine is too wide. Incomes in Ukraine are on a par with those in El Salvador or Namibia. In Bulgaria, the poorest country in the EU, per capita gross national product in 2023 was around $15,000, which is still three times higher than in Ukraine. A floodgate should only be opened when the water level is balanced.
Because of this huge gap, Ukraine should also be advised against joining the EU. Despite low incomes, it is possible to live comfortably in Ukraine because many prices are lower than in the EU. However, experience shows that countries with lower price levels that joined the EU experienced a convergence toward the higher price levels of the existing member states. Everything becomes more expensive, but incomes do not grow as quickly, people have less and become impoverished and destitute. This is what would happen to Ukraine.
Ukraine’s accession to the EU would therefore oblige EU states to send their own soldiers to the front in Ukraine and enter into open war with Russia, with all the terrible consequences that would entail. It would also be an economic disaster. The immense costs of Ukraine’s integration into the EU would swallow up the EU budget, leaving nothing for the previous net recipient states. Due to the depopulation of Ukraine, economic reconstruction of the country is difficult due to a lack of labor, and the country will be dependent on the EU for a long time to come. The tenfold income gap between Ukraine and Germany would drive many farms and businesses into ruin in a customs union. On the other hand, price adjustments to EU levels would impoverish large sections of the Ukrainian population. Hungary’s opposition to Ukraine’s accession to the EU is very reasonable.
Comments
Thomas Mayer is a civil rights activist, meditation teacher, and author ( www.thomasmayer.org ). In his book “Wahrheitssuche im Ukraine-Krieg – Um was es wirklich geht” (Searching for Truth in the Ukraine War – What It’s Really About), he provides a comprehensive overview of the background to the Ukraine war, including the complicity of Ukraine and NATO. 600 pages, €28, ISBN 978-3-89060-863-1. Information about the book: https://kurzelinks.de/h10a
The book is now also available as an audiobook narrated by Enno Schmidt. It is over 20 hours long. You can get the entire audiobook for €10 from artus audio with the voucher code “WIUK2025”: www.artus-kreativschmiede.ch/shop . You can listen to a free chapter here: https://www.youtube.com/@artusaudio
Bibliography:
i https://www.sudd.ch/event.php?lang=de&id=hu012025 , Articles on the course of the referendum can be found here: https://abouthungary.hu/tags/voks-2025
ii https://kormany.hu/hirek/a-voks-2025-szavazok-95-szazaleka-elutasitotta-ukrajna-csatlakozasat
iii https://abouthungary.hu/blog/while-tisza-claimed-to-speak-for-hungary-voks-2025-listens
iv https://www.bundestag.de/presse/hib/kurzmeldungen-1007460
v https://dip.bundestag.de/vorgang/keine-er%C3%B6ffnung-von-eu-beitrittsverhandlungen-mit-der-ukraine/312613?f.wahlperiode=20&f.herausgeber_dokumentart=Bundestag-Drucksache&f.vorgangstyp_p=01Antr%C3%A4ge&start=275&rows=25&pos=276&ctx=a
vi https://dejure.org/gesetze/EUV/42.html
vii https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_17120.htm?selectedLocale=de
viii https://www.bpb.de/kurz-knapp/zahlen-und-fakten/europa/70580/nettozahler-und-nettoempfaenger-in-der-eu/
ix Thomas Mayer, Search for Truth in the Ukraine War, p. 47 f.
x Here are two sources on Ukrainian deaths, missing persons, and injuries. The actual number is higher, which is why it can be assumed that there are up to one million dead and injured.
https://ualosses.org/en/soldiers
xi https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/ukrainians-have-lost-faith-in-zelensky/
xiii Thomas Mayer, Search for Truth in the Ukraine War, p. 460 f.
xiv https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/1303434/umfrage/bilaterale-unterstuetzung-fuer-die-ukraine-im-ukraine-krieg/
xv https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/37070/umfrage/bruttostaatsverschuldung-ausgewaehlter-laender-in-anteil-am-bruttoinlandsprodukt/
xvi https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liste_der_L%C3%A4nder_nach_Bruttonationaleinkommen_pro_Kopf#cite_note-2
