Berlin, FRG (Weltexpress). Ukraine’s defeat – with or without ATACMS – can no longer be averted. But the British military think tank RUSI has already presented plans to arm Ukraine into an even more powerful battering ram against Russia during a frozen ceasefire.
Part I ended with the remark that the author of the RUSI article, Andriy Zagorodnyuk, former Minister of Defense of Ukraine from 2019 to 2020 and ex-advisor to Zelensky, cannot resist blaming the USA/NATO for Ukraine’s current military problems. In a long litany, he lists the failures and weaknesses of NATO aid to date.
The delivery of obsolete NATO equipment is the number one and perennial focus of Ukrainian criticism. NATO has sent Ukraine antiquated weapons – including F-16 fighter jets with outdated radar systems. The result: Russia controls the airspace, while Ukraine is bombed with missiles and drones. Without modern air superiority, any defense strategy is doomed to failure from the outset, says author Zagorodnyuk.
Next, he criticized inappropriate operational deployment models on the basis of which NATO instructors had taught Ukrainian recruits the craft of war. Ukraine is fighting under conditions in which the NATO military would never fight. NATO strategies are typically based on overwhelming air superiority and long-range attacks to weaken enemy forces before direct engagement on the ground. In contrast, Ukraine would face Russian forces directly on the front lines, often without sufficient air support or long-range weapons. This would force Ukraine to compensate for this imbalance with considerable human losses. From this, Zagorodnyuk deduces the urgent need for a more effective operational model in which the USA/NATO help Ukraine with modern Western aircraft to establish air superiority against the Russians.
Apart from the dreamy hopes of Ukrainian air superiority, what is particularly interesting in this part of Zagorodnyuk’s list of NATO shortcomings is his admission – certainly not deliberate – of Ukraine’s enormous losses in terms of men and material. Normally, high losses are categorically denied by Ukrainian propaganda, which is mantra-like repeated by the US/NATO “quality media”.
Ukraine’s third problem, in which Zagorodnyuk criticizes NATO’s lack of tactical support, are Russian glide bombs, long-range missiles and drones. There is a major gap in tactical capabilities here. In order to close this gap, more advanced air defense systems, anti-drone technologies and electronic air defense systems are required. Without these capabilities, Ukraine would remain exposed to sophisticated Russian weapons without adequate protection. Here, too, it is interesting that Zagorodnyuk dispels the US/NATO myth of outdated and non-functioning Russian weapons, which allegedly stand no chance against Western wonder weapons.
Finally, the author turns his attention to the planning of Ukraine’s future armed forces. This requires, as a priority, recognizing the constantly changing dynamics on the battlefield and the associated technological advances in good time and transforming them into practical action. The rapid pace of innovation in areas such as unmanned systems, electronic warfare and computer vision has already overtaken many traditional weapons and doctrines, according to Zagorodnyuk.
Up to this point, the author has correctly analyzed the expected developments, only to go on to build spectacular castles in the air in which these developments would be mastered. For example, in order to be able to keep up militarily in the future, Ukraine would have to pursue a future-oriented approach and integrate state-of-the-art technologies into its defense strategy. But how is that supposed to work? Where will the new, revolutionary innovations come from? Where will the money for research, development, testing and evaluation of new military systems come from before one of them goes into serial production? Where are the top Ukrainian institutes with top engineers and technicians tailored to these areas? Oh yes, they are all located in Zagorodnyuk’s castles in the air.
But wait, Zagorodnyuk still has a brilliant idea, which he offers to the West via his RUSI article, and here it is: Western military procurement systems, designed for peacetime, have proven unsuitable for the rapid demands of modern warfare, he says. Long development and delivery cycles have delayed the deployment of critical systems, rendering some platforms obsolete before they reach the battlefield. This slow adaptation has left Ukraine vulnerable and highlights the need for a more agile approach to defense assistance.
According to Zagorodnyuk, Ukraine’s path to lasting peace and security depends on rectifying the shortcomings of previous NATO assistance and building a resilient defense framework. To this end, the author offers the West the opportunity to use the resilient, highly developed Ukrainian defense industry for new developments, as there are fewer administrative hurdles in Ukraine to react quickly to new challenges.
By utilizing Ukraine’s industrial capacities, integrating advanced technologies and aligning with NATO standards, Ukraine could create a deterrent force that would ensure its sovereignty and stability and from which NATO and, above all, Europe would also benefit.
Zagorodnyuk’s castle in the air also harbors the hope that Western arms companies will have their most advanced weapons developments manufactured using top-secret technologies. In most cases, they do not even exchange these latest technologies with NATO partners, both for reasons of secrecy and competitive concerns.
Zagorodnyuk also seems to have completely forgotten that the vast majority of Ukraine’s industrial capacity lies east of the Dnieper in the Donbass, which is now controlled by Russia.
And thirdly, the planner of the rearmament of the Ukrainian battering ram seems to ignore the fact that Russia is on the advance and Ukraine is on the verge of collapse and that Moscow is therefore not at all interested in a frozen ceasefire à la Korea, ATACMs or not! Because even they can no longer change the outcome of this war.
Note:
See the article
- Ukraine’s defeat can no longer be averted – Series: Plans to rearm Ukraine for the next war against Russia (Part 1/2) by Rainer Rupp
in the WELTEXPRESS.
