Berlin, FRG (Weltexpress). Is there some kind of European Grand Prix of warmongering going on, and Merz, at last, wants to score twelve points for Germany? Or is it overcompensation because there is no red button? In any case, the Taurus fantasies of the next chancellor are highly dangerous.
The man isn’t even chancellor yet and he’s already reminding everyone how expensive this could cost them. No, not just because he has called into question the increase in the minimum wage, or because corporate taxation will certainly be lowered, but payroll tax only maybe, and he loudly announces that he wants to make heating oil and natural gas so expensive that Germans will have to replace their heating systems. No, he goes straight to the point and brings the Taurus back into play.
The reason he gives is Russian missiles on Sumy – the very missiles that triggered a dispute between the Ukrainian provincial politicians about who was the big shot who rounded up a large number of soldiers for a medal ceremony and then even put up posters in the city.
This is not the first time that such events by the Ukrainian military have demanded a very high price, because this is of course a military target that is as easy as it is rewarding. But this time, precisely because of this Ukrainian huffing and puffing that is widely visible on the Internet, it is definitely a special achievement to keep the lid on the leading German media and not let a drop of truth seep through…
In any case, Merz had a go at Carmen Miosga about this “clear war crime”, which the presenter, who herself was not peaceful, then supplemented with a snippet of Merz from the Bundestag in which he had already fantasized about Taurus deliveries last year, and then the chancellor-to-be went one better by declaring that “the most important land connection between Russia and Crimea” should be destroyed.
Even the Taurus would have a hard time with that, as it runs between Kherson and Crimea, is quite solid and about six kilometers wide, but, geographically well practiced like German President Steinmeier, who once located a land bridge to Crimea near Mariupol, he rather means the Kerch Bridge, without the word land in front of it. He has the same thorn in his flesh as the Kiev rulers, albeit more because this 18-kilometer-long bridge was maliciously built in three years, which would be completely unthinkable in Germany. After all, it’s a bit cheeky of these Russians to put something like this there, while the Germans have to struggle through the decades with flagship projects such as Stuttgart 21.
What is truly astonishing, however, is that you always have to repeat the same information without it ever reaching the Berlin mob. Merz actually seems to think that the agreement of the other Western European warmongers to a delivery of Taurus would mean something: “I have always said that I would only do this in coordination with the European partners, the European partners are already delivering cruise missiles, the British are doing it, the French are doing it, the Americans are doing it anyway. This has to be coordinated, and if it is coordinated, then Germany should participate.”
It should come as no surprise that the Estonian village mayor Kaja Kallas immediately welcomes such statements with jubilation. And there are certainly other candidates, none of whom have a problem with Germans willingly throwing themselves under the knife. Does Merz really think this means anything, or is he just pretending? In the meantime, even the New York Times has reported extensively on the extent of US involvement in the use of US weapons, so this can be taken for granted by now, and it would be no different with the German Taurus.
It was just a year ago that chatter among some German military officers about an attack on the Crimean bridge using the Taurus dominated the headlines. Merz now seems convinced that all he has to do is pull the plans out of the drawer.
However, and Merz should perhaps take the precaution of learning this again before assuming the chancellorship, it is a little different when the British or the French program their cruise missiles for the Ukrainians than when the Germans do it. Keyword enemy state clause. Repetition is fun to a limited extent, but in this case it’s unavoidable to list it all again… perhaps Merz has someone who can whisper it into his ear from behind in his private plane so that he gets up to some less dangerous mischief.
In other words, the enemy state clause. It is still part of the UN Charter, in Articles 53 and 107. Since German guided missiles only strike with German personnel, the use of these missiles against Russian territory, including the Kerch Bridge mentioned by Merz, would be an act of war by Germany against Russia. Because there is the aforementioned enemy state clause, a direct Russian reaction against Germany would be completely in accordance with international law, without the involvement of the UN Security Council.
It is also useless to refer to the Two Plus Four Treaty, which was supposed to take the place of a peace treaty. In any case, it has already been broken by the establishment of the NATO Baltic Sea Command in Rostock, by the Germany from whose soil “only peace should emanate”. Which, as soon as Russia concludes that it has to follow this up with action, will return relations with Germany to the level they were at for decades before the aforementioned treaty: that of a ceasefire in a war that was never formally ended by a peace treaty. If German missiles hit Russia with German involvement, then from a legal point of view the Second World War simply continues.
A small problem that, as we know, neither the British nor the French have, which is why it doesn’t change the German difficulties one iota if they both approved of firing said Taurus. The fact that the Taurus could possibly even function without US target data, because there is this geodata on Russia that the Bundeswehr had compiled a few years ago, only makes the whole thing worse.
However, the legacy of international law is not the only obstacle. Does Merz really assume that the current US administration would be delighted if a new German government were to literally shoot up its negotiations with Russia? So what if Washington reacts to such an attack not with praise and support, but with indignation? Even the strongest cheers from London or Paris (and certainly not from the Baltic dwarves) won’t really help.
But there’s still the dragon in the room, which is often forgotten in all the staring at the bear. A German attack on Russia? The legal situation is so clear that the Chinese reaction could be far harsher than we are used to. A little help from the Far East for Russia under attack? As I said, it has a completely different quality when such attacks are carried out by Germans than when the British and French… it’s downright embarrassing to even have to spell it out.
It is easy to imagine what is going on in Mr. Merz’s head. Presumably, in the tradition of an obsession with historical dates that was already so common among the last Ostlandritter, he is already thinking about whether he could still manage to have the Taurus hit on Victory Day, counting from the possible assumption of office on May 6. As a souvenir for his planned visit to Ukraine on that date. However, this could then be read in Russia as nothing other than identification with the invaders, who were so devastatingly defeated in 1945, which would virtually force the activation of the enemy state clause.
Obviously, complete irresponsibility is now the decisive qualification for the German chancellorship. And Olaf Scholz’s grin on Nord Stream 2 is a huge achievement that needs to be surpassed to make it into the history books. Since all further actions that ruin the country are essentially just “business as usual”, a continuation of the evils that Merkel and then the traffic lights coalition have already created, something like a deployment of the Taurus is one of the few ways in which Merz can quickly and thoroughly set himself apart from his predecessors. Perhaps he is also speculating on a further rise in Rheinmetall shares, with a small bet on this and compliments to his old employer BlackRock.
N 52° 31’12.205340 E 13° 22′ 9.2568 are in any case the coordinates of the Federal Chancellery, where the gentleman could be found when he returns from Kiev. After all, one can only hope that if Merz is unable to restrain himself, Russia will limit its response to those personally responsible.
One thing is clear – a chancellorship that threatens to begin with such lapses should be kept as short as possible. What was said in front of the television cameras would have been enough for an urgent hospitalization in more sensible decades: for endangering oneself and others.
