Berlin, Germany (Weltexpress). Resumption of all US military and financial aid to Ukraine, but US Secretary of State Rubio demands a “goodwill gesture“ from the Kremlin in which Russia only loses and Ukraine wins. Is Rubio playing a double game to get Trump back on course for war against Russia?
The Americans’ change of heart, from a total stop of any kind of military aid to Ukraine a week ago to a 180-degree turnaround and full resumption of all US military and financial aid, took place virtually overnight. What had happened? What changed the international situation so radically?
In my view, two factors were decisive: firstly, the collapse of the Ukrainian army in the Kursk cauldron and secondly, a 30-day ceasefire offer from Washington to Ukraine and Russia, enriched with British toxin. However, it is an offer that the Russians can only lose out on, as they cannot possibly accept it in its present form, but if they reject it, they will be condemned as the intransigent bad guys who are unwilling to negotiate and thus go into confrontation with Trump’s peace plan, which – so the EU-NATO schemers hope – could help to bring Trump back to his old, anti-Russian course.
Although the details of the ceasefire agreement presented by the Americans in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, are not yet known to the Russians either, the USA – as mentioned above – has resumed all military aid to Ukraine. If the Kremlin were to enter into the ceasefire agreement imposed by Washington on Ukraine and Russia under these circumstances, this would cause massive damage to Russia:
- Firstly, the Russian army’s successful offensive in the Kursk pocket would be halted prematurely and thousands of well-equipped Ukrainian troops could escape from the pocket.
- Secondly, the Ukrainian army could also be fully reinforced by the USA and EU-NATO for four weeks. This means that new weapons and ammunition could be brought to the front lines of the Ukrainian front completely undisturbed by Russian air strikes.
- Thirdly, the Ukrainian troops could have 30 days to recover and the army command could use the breathing space to regroup the troops for the resumption of fighting.
- Fourthly, at the end of the 30 days, the Russian army would once again face a stronger opponent. Not that this could prevent the outcome of the war with a total defeat of Ukraine, but it would take longer, the fighting would be fiercer and it would also claim more victims on the Russian side.
The American proposal therefore confronts the Russians with the decision of either continuing the fight, in which Ukraine can hardly put up any resistance, or laying down their arms, breaking off their successful offensive and standing idly by as Ukraine is once again stuffed full of weapons. Only idiots could choose the second option. So why would the Russians do something so crazy? The official reasoning of US Secretary of State Rubio is: “Russia should show a gesture of goodwill.”
This is really absurd, as if Russia had not already shown enough “gestures of goodwill” in this conflict. Here is a brief review the history of broken Ukrainian ceasefire agreements and peace negotiations:
- Minsk I – Thousands of Ukrainian soldiers are killed in the Ilovaisk cauldron in August 2014. Ukrainian forces, including Nazi volunteer battalions, attempted to capture the strategically important town of Ilovaisk in the Donbass from opponents of the coup government in Kiev. After initial successes, the troops of the Maidan coup government were encircled. Hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers were killed, wounded or captured. At that moment, the appeal came from Kiev: “We are ready for peace! Let’s negotiate!” Minsk I is concluded and immediately broken.
- Minsk II – Thousands of Ukrainian soldiers are killed in the cauldron of Debaltsevo (2015). Debaltsevo was a decisive moment in the Ukrainian putschist regime’s war in Kiev against its own Russian-speaking population in Donbass, officially described as an anti-terrorist operation. The battle took place between January and February 2015 at the strategically important junction for road and rail links between the Donetsk and Lugansk regions in the Donbass. The Ukrainian forces led by Nazi volunteer battalions were encircled and suffered heavy losses. “Stop the war! We want peace!” were the cries for help from Kiev, which also reached Chancellor Merkel. She flew to Moscow and lobbied Putin for a Minsk II agreement, which was then signed but never implemented by Ukraine. Merkel and French President Hollande have now also announced that Minsk II was merely intended to stall the Russians in order to buy time for NATO to arm Ukraine.
- Istanbul – Russian troops stand in front of Kiev in March 2022. “We are ready for negotiations,” it sounded from Kiev. In Istanbul, the two sides, Russians and Ukrainians, initialed a peace treaty. Then the head of the Ukrainian delegation is shot dead under mysterious circumstances on his return to Kiev, and the initialed peace treaty is immediately disposed of in the trash.
- Kursk – The Ukrainian army is currently (2025) suffering a collapse in the Kursk region. Thousands of soldiers are surrounded. And suddenly Kiev is once again calling for negotiations and a ceasefire.
For their part, Putin and the entire Russian ruling class have repeatedly formulated what Russia needs for a ceasefire, namely substantial talks and serious declarations of intent to create a new European security concept in which the security of one side must not be expanded at the expense of the security of the other side. Once such a concept has been worked out by the sides involved, above all with Washington, then a ceasefire can follow.
But apparently none of Trump’s negotiating team ever listened to the Russians. After all, ignoring the concerns and worries of the Russians has been part of good manners among the Western “elites” since the end of the Cold War. Otherwise they would not have presented a plan in Jeddah that could only be rejected by the Russians. And so Russia was given the “buck” as the enemy of peace. An ingenious propaganda move for the media. It all sounds like a set-up. And there are many indications that it is exactly that, a plot against Russia and Trump at the same time, with the British Starmer government in charge – more on this in Part II.
And against this backdrop, the US is now asking Russia to sign an agreement in which they, the Russians, can only lose. In return, the Americans have nothing to offer the Russians other than threats of new sanctions if Russia does not comply. But even Trump can’t impress the Kremlin with that.
According to a recent military analysis by the well-known retired US Army colonel and military historian Douglas Macgregor, Russian troops have the strategic initiative in Ukraine, and not only there. In a war in Eastern Europe, they are – in his firm opinion – stronger in every respect today than the USA and NATO Europe combined. So why should the Kremlin dance to the tune of the USA when it comes to an idiotic ceasefire agreement designed by Washington that puts Russia at a severe disadvantage? Russia will win this war in Ukraine one way or another, even if the Trump team continues as the team of deranged warmongers under President Biden left off.
According to Macgregor, from Moscow’s point of view, the war is essentially already over. As far as the management of the victory is concerned, the Kremlin now has to make some decisions. Selensky plays virtually no role in this anymore. He is largely irrelevant and merely a nuisance factor that delays the end of the fighting and dying.
According to Macgregor, the Russians currently have several options. They have concentrations of armed forces in the north-east and south-east of Ukraine. They can move at will. They have enough forces to cross into Kherson. They can take Odessa. They can advance and march directly to Kiev. Literally, he said: “Whatever they do, they have to ask themselves: how far do we want to go to guarantee Russia’s security? And they never really wanted to go far into Ukraine. That was never the intention. But over time, as the West delivered longer and longer-range missiles that could penetrate deeper and deeper inside Russia, they were increasingly forced to secure more territory to create a defensive wall and protect Russia from these threats.”
